MLB Rankings: Top Ten Left Fielders for the 2024 Season

All stats within this article come from Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs. I reference advanced stats such as wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+, OPS+, OAA, BsR, DRS, FRV, Sweet-Spot% and fWAR in my rankings. To find out what they are, I have attached links that will direct you to an explanation.

Welcome to the eighth set of my positional rankings for the upcoming MLB season. This list will rank the top ten left fielders based on how I believe they will perform in 2024. I will not include any players who are projected to miss the season.

10: Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

It was tough to decide between Guardians’ left fielder Steven Kwan or Happ for this spot. Despite being a worse defender, I gave Happ the nod because he has a higher offensive ceiling with more power and better on-base skills. Happ has always been a solid player, and continued looking like such in 2023. He slashed .248/.360/.431 with 21 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His .360 on-base percentage ranked fifth among left fielders, and his 14.3% walk rate was among the 95th percentile in MLB. It’s a valuable skill, and Happ also did well at maximizing his power with one of the lowest groundball rates of his career and a 36.7 sweet-spot%. Even with a rougly league-average barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, Happ posted a 77th percentile xwOBA of .350. Likely to have another good offensive seasom, Happ earns the tenth spot on this list.

9: Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies

I had my doubts about Marsh, and I wondered if the Phillies would regret trading catcher Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels in order to acquire him. Now, I have to eat crow. Marsh has always been a great defender, and that remained the case in 2023. Playing all over the outfield, Marsh had 6 OAA. However, Marsh cracks the top ten because he broke out offensively. He slashed .277/.372/.458 with 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ in 2023. He still struck out 30.5% of the time, but he drastically improved his barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and walk rate from 2022. With an offensive profile like this and elite outfield defense, I’m confident that Marsh is one of ten best players at his position next season.

8: Chas McCormick, Houston Astros

A versatile outfielder with experience in center, McCormick had the best offensive season of his career in 2023. With a slash line of .273/.353/.489, 22 home runs, and a 133 wRC+ in 115 games, McCormick was worth 3.8 fWAR. In fact, he hasn’t had a season with a below-average wRC+ in his three-year career. 2023 stands out with a career-high barrel rate (11.1%), xwOBA (.345), and sweet-spot percentage (38.4%). He also showed good range in the outfield with 4 OAA. My main concern is that McCormick had a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), .331. The league-average BABIP tends to be around .300 from year-to-year, so McCormick’s hitting production could regress next season.

7: Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins

It was quite the debut season for Wallner. In just 76 games, he was worth 1.9 fWAR after slashing .249/.370/.507 with 14 home runs and a 144 wRC+. Wallner has light-tower power with multiple home runs over 430 feet last season, including a 463-foot grand slam against the Oakland A’s. He also had a .376 xwOBA, 18.8% barrel rate, and 48.1% hard-hit rate. He fits the archetype you’d expect from a power hitter: strikes out a lot (31.5 K%) but also walks enough to balance it out (11 BB%). He wasn’t great defensively, and it’s fair to be skeptical if he can maintain his high level of production over a full season. Yet, I like hitters with Wallner’s profile, and I believe he has all of the tools to be one of the best hitters at his position.

6: Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies

Another rookie breaout, Jones is the exact type of player you want to play 81 games in a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field. He has elite power, hitting 20 home runs while posting a 15.7% barrel rate, .499 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA last season. With this power profile, he had a 135 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR. Jones also had a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 12.5%. He could unlock another level of power if he can improve his flyball rate; his flyball rate was merely 37.5%. I think he could benefit from adopting a more pull-heavy, flyball approach to maximize his home run potential. Despite having -5 OAA last season, Jones had 4 FRV because he had the strongest arm in MLB; his throws averaged 98.9 mph and maxed out at 102.7 mph. I like Jones similarly to Wallner, and I’ll be curious to see who has a better season.

5: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

The former superstar had his best season since 2019. Yelich looked much closer to the hitter that was capable of winning a MVP award. He was worth 4.1 fWAR after slashing .278/.370/.447 with 19 home runs and a 122 wRC+. There were some improvements with his barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and he also appeared to have a slightly more aggressive approach. However, most importantly, he regained some of the power from earlier in his career, posting an improved xwOBA, xSLG, and ISO. He also walked at impressive rate of 12.3%, stole 29 bases with 7.5 BsR, and improved his defense in the outfield; he generated 4 OAA after being a defensive detriment in the prior years.

I do have a two concerns with Yelich. First, his 57.3% groundball rate from last season is remarkably high. When you hit a lot of groundballs, your production can fluctuate from year-to-year depending on your BABIP. Yelich’s BABIP was .342, a mark that is tough to maintain. While it will be tough, Yelich is a skilled hitter that has only had one season with a BABIP below .300 because of his incredible bat control and contact skills. Second, despite having plus-range in the outfield, his arm strength was first percentile last season, and thus it tanked his defensive value to -4 FRV. If he regresses defensively this season, it’ll be difficult to post another 4-WAR season.

4: Evan Carter, Texas Rangers

I’ve labeled a lot of my rankings as ambitious, but this one has to take the cake as the most ambitious. Despite only playing 23 regular season games, Carter earns the fourth spot on my left fielder rankings. He was phenomenal in those games; he slashed .306/.413/.645, hit 5 home runs, had a 180 wRC+ and was worth 1.3 fWAR. He continued raking in the postseason, batting .300 with 6 RBIs, 9 doubles, 1 home run, and a .917 OPS. Now, it’s time to see what he can do over a full season. He had decent peripheral stats, including a .339 xwOBA, 43.6 sweet-spot%, and 16% walk rate, but the sample is way too small to take it seriously. MLB Pipeline projects him as a player with three “plus” tools (hitting, fielding, baserunning) with league-average power and arm strength. He’s flashed what type of player he could be, and if he reaches that potential, then he has done more than enough to earn this ranking.

3: Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Becoming the highest-paid player in Pirates’ history, Reynolds had an encouraging 2023 season. You might think I’m crazy especially when you see that it was one of the worst seasons of his career. Reynolds was worth 2.3 fWAR after slashing .263/.330/.460 with 24 home runs and a 110 wRC+. Like other players we’ve talked about throughout my rankings, Reynolds was unlucky last season (he also dealt with a back injury). Despite his wRC+ dropping 14 points from 2022, he had much better peripheral stats, including a higher xwOBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and chase percentage. He was much closer to his breakout 2021 season than you might think. While he isn’t a great defender in the outfield, he could benefit from less time in center field. I’m confident that Reynolds returns to form in 2024.

2: Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals

Nootbaar missed over 40 games with multiple trips to the IL in 2023, yet it was still a solid year for him. I’ll admit that I thought he would break out as an all-star and receive MVP votes last year, but a .261/.367/.418 slash line, 118 wRC+, and 3.2 fWAR is still quite good. With a great eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills, Nootbaar had a 98th percentile chase rate (17.1%), 88th percentile whiff rate (18.2%), and 95th percentile walk rate (14.3%). The whiff rate is a nice improvement from 23.5% in 2022. Even with slightly underwhelming peripheral stats, Nootbaar still had a .356 xwOBA. My hope is that he can combine his 2023 plate discipline metrics with his elite 2022 batted ball data next season. With good defense in every spot of the outfield, 2024 could be the year where he puts it all together and has a ridiculous season.

1: Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

One of the most electrifying players in MLB, Arozarena has been a model of offensive consistency since his rookie season in 2021. His 126 wRC+ since 2021 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders, trailing only Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, and Yordan Alvarez. In 151 games, Arozarena slashed .254/.364/.426 with 23 home runs and a 126 wRC+ last year. He also had some very encouraging improvements. One of which was improving his chase rate and posting the highest walk rate of his career (12.2%). In addition, he had a career-high xwOBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He even improved his flyball rate, hitting less groundballs and helping him hit a career-high home run total. It may have been one of his worse defensive seasons, but if he returns to average like 2022, 2024 could be the best season of his career.