Dissecting the NL Wild Card
Highlighting the best and worst things for each team in the NL Wild Card race
With the all-star break approaching, the National League (NL) wild card remains in total disarray. The 13th-best team in the NL (the Chicago Cubs) is a mere five games behind for the final playoff spot. The St. Louis Cardinals, who possess the final spot, are also only a half game behind the San Diego Padres. There’s a lot of baseball left, and it will surely be an entertaining as these teams battle it out for the opportunity to play baseball in October.
Chicago Cubs (39-46)- 13th in NL
The Cubs are one of the disappointing teams this season. Their offense has been underwhelming, ranking among the bottom ten in wRC+, batting average, OPS, and slugging. Many of their top players, including Dansby Swanson, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner, have a wRC+ below league average (100). However, their biggest liability has been their bullpen. They are tied with the Miami Marlins for the most blown saves in the NL. Their bullpen ranks among the bottom ten in ERA, FIP, fWAR, and walks allowed per nine innings.
On the bright side, if their offensive players can return to form and their bullpen improves, they could make a run with a strong starting rotation. Their starters rank among the top half of the league in ERA, FIP, fWAR, and innings pitched. Four of their starters, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon, have an ERA+ better than 130. That is the most starters for a single team in MLB this season.
Washington Nationals (39-45)- 12th in NL
While the Nationals are below .500, there have been lots of encouraging signs for their rebuild. Most notably, the players they acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto trade have been very impressive this year. CJ Abrams has drastically improved his offensive profile with a higher barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and launch angle enroute to a 139 wRC+. MacKenzie Gore has improved his strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. As a result, he has posted a career-best ERA (3.47) and FIP (2.99) so far. Making his debut as I write this, James Wood is arguably the best prospect in MLB after dominating the Triple-A level with 67 hits, 10 home runs, and a 1.058 OPS in 190 at-bats.
Despite these encouraging developments, the Nationals lack offensive support around their core. Of the players with more than 50 plate appearances for the Nationals this season (counting Abrams), only two have a wRC+ above 100. Players who have performed, like outfielder Jesse Winker and starting pitcher Trevor Williams, are free agents after this season. Don’t be surprised if the Nationals sell like the Orioles did in 2022.
Cincinnati Reds (39-45)- 11th in NL
The Reds have not taken a step forward from last season, but they’ll be getting multiple players back from injury during the second half of this year. This includes center fielder TJ Friedl, reliever Emilio Pagan, and possibly second baseman Matt McLain. They also got third baseman Noelvi Marte back from a suspension on June 27th. This will be the Reds best opportunity to turn things around, especially their hitting. They rank bottom ten in wRC+, fWAR, home runs, and strikeout rate. At least Elly De La Cruz is playing up to his potential; he has a 124 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR, and the fifth-most stolen bases (39) through the first half of a season in the past decade.
The Reds pitching staff has also been impressive. They currently have the eleventh best ERA in MLB (3.86). Starting pitchers Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo lead the way with each having at least an ERA+ of 115 and 70 innings pitched (IP). Better yet, Lodolo is the oldest at just 26 years old.
Pittsburgh Pirates (40-43)- 10th in NL
One of the more surprising teams this season, the Pirates have largely remained in the playoff picture because of their starting rotation. It is one of the best in the league with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller. In fact, since Skenes debuted on May 11th, they have the fourth-best ERA in MLB. Through nine starts, Skenes has lived up to the hype with a 2.06 ERA and 34.1% strikeout rate in 52.1 IP. For reference, Stephen Strasburg, whom Skenes has often been compared to, had a 2.32 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate, and 54.1 IP through his first nine starts. However, their bullpen and offense has been the polar opposite. Their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.61 ERA this season, and they only have one pitcher with at least 10 IP and an ERA below 3.20. Their offense ranks among the bottom five in wRC+, strikeout rate, and fWAR.
San Francisco Giants (41-44)- 9th in NL
Like the Reds, the Giants have been an injury-riddled team throughout this season, and hopefully can make a run with the return of several players during the second half. Many of these players are part of the starting rotation, such as Blake Snell, Robbie Ray, and Alex Cobb. They’ll be crucial to help turn around a pitching staff that ranks 25th in MLB with a 4.50 ERA. Their return will also help take pressure off the Giants bullpen, which leads MLB with the most IP among bullpens this season.
Despite some of their offensive additions from free agency underperforming, the Giants’ offense still ranks in the top half of MLB in wRC+, runs, and fWAR. This has largely been because of Lamonte Wade Jr., who just returned from injury recently, and multiple young players, like Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, and Brett Wisely. Each player has a wRC+ of 120 or better, but Ramos is the standout. Among outfielders with 100 or more plate appearances, he ranks among the top twenty with a 149 wRC+, .368 on-base percentage, and 2.0 fWAR. His peripherals are also very impressive as he ranks in the 90th percentile for categories like barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, and bat speed.
Arizona Diamondbacks (41-43)- 8th in NL
The Diamondbacks are yet another injury-riddled team that has been without starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, and outfielder Alek Thomas for an extended period of time. Getting Rodriguez and Kelly back would drastically improve a pitching staff with the second-worst ERA (4.63) in MLB this season. While the offense hasn’t been a major issue (they rank 12th with a 104 wRC+),they need a resurgence from 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll. After generating 5.4 fWAR last year, Carroll has been extremely disappointing this season, slashing .213/.305/.315 with 2 home runs and an 80 wRC+. At least second baseman Ketel Marte and first baseman Christian Walker have continued producing. Marte leads the team with a 141 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR, and 17 home runs, while Walker also has 17 home runs with a 124 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR.
New York Mets (41-41)- 7th in NL
After a red-hot June in which they were 16-8, the Mets surged back into the playoff picture. Their offense was a major contributor to their resurgence. Since June 1st, they have had the best wRC+, second-most home runs, and most runs scored in MLB. Among players who have played at least 30 games for the Mets this season, eight of them have a 110 wRC+ or better. This includes catcher Francisco Alvarez, who returned from injury in June and led the team with a 1.123 OPS during the month.
The Mets will need their offense to continue producing with an uncertain pitching staff that has the ninth-worst ERA (4.35) in MLB. They’ve relied on starting pitchers Luis Severino and Sean Manaea as their only consistent starters. Hopefully, rookie starting pitchers Christian Scott and José Buttó can help solidify this rotation. The bullpen has been solid, but closer Edwin Diaz has a 4.70 ERA and won’t return until July 6th after serving a suspension for a sticky stuff violation.
St. Louis Cardinals (43-40)- 6th in NL
The Cardinals surged in June with a 16-12 record to get hold of the final wild card spot. Their offseason additions of starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson have paid off so far. Each one has pitched in 87.2 innings with a 112 ERA+ or better. They’ve also had good offensive contributions from young players like shortstop Masyn Winn, outfielder Alec Burleson, and utility Brendan Donovan. Masyn Winn has been a true standout, leading qualified Cardials players in fWAR (1.5) and posting a 112 wRC+ as a 22-year old rookie. The offense should get better with catcher Willson Contreras back from injury, and outfielder Lars Nootbaar set to be back soon as well.
The issue has been the Cardinals’ aging core of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, third baseman Nolan Arenado, and starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. Despite being the three highest paid players on the team, each has underperformed. Both Arenado and Goldschmidt have a wRC+ below 100, while Mikolas currently has a 5.32 ERA, which is the fourth-worst ERA among qualified pitchers this season. The team also has a -40 run differenial, the worst mark among all teams mentioned in this article.
San Diego Padres (46-42)- 5th in NL
The Padres have held onto a playoff spot for much of the season. Their offense has been a reason for this as they lead the National League in batting average, as well as have a top 5 wRC+ (114) and the lowest strikeout rate (17.9%) in MLB. Even more surprisingly, they have three of the top four outfielders by fWAR despite trading away Juan Soto this past offseason. Fernando Tatis Jr. being one of these players shouldn’t be a surprise, but Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill have been crucial to this team’s success. Profar leads NL outfielders in fWAR (2.9), wRC+ (158), and on-base percentage (.408). Despite mostly playing shortstop in his baseball career, rookie Jackson Merrill has been a plus-defensive center fielder with 3 outs above average (OAA) while producing a 128 wRC+.
The biggest issue with the Padres has been their lack of pitching depth among their starters and bullpen. The pitching staff ranks among the bottom half of MLB as they’ve dealt with injuries to the starting rotation. Both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have not pitched since May, and the Padres have relied on rookie starting pitchers Adam Mazur and Randy Vasquez to fill innings. The bullpen lacks experienced, reliable pitchers outside of Robert Suarez. Offseason bullpen additions like Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Enyel De Los Santos have underwhelmed, and other relievers like Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada are in high leverage roles for the first time in their career.